Canary's XRPC ETF: A $58 Million Mirage or the Real Deal?
Canary Capital's XRPC ETF burst onto the scene with a reported $58 million in day-one trading volume. That's a headline grabber, no doubt. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is calling it the biggest debut for an ETF this year. But let's pump the brakes for a second and look under the hood.
First, $58 million is impressive relative to other ETF launches this year. Bitwise's Solana ETF (BSOL) managed about $57 million on its first day. But let's put that into perspective against established ETFs. We’re talking about a rounding error for giants like SPY or QQQ.
The claim is that XRPC is "leading 2025 ETF launches." Well, it's November 2025. So, the sample size is limited. It's like declaring a baseball player the MVP after the first week of the season. Premature, to say the least.
One analyst, Matt Hogan at Bitwise, made a particularly insightful comment: “You'd rather have 20% of people love an asset than 80% of people kinda vaguely like it." ETFs, he says, "die from apathy, not disagreement." This is true, but the key question is: who loves XRP enough to drive sustained volume?
The success of an ETF isn't just about the initial splash; it's about sustained interest and, crucially, who's holding the bag. Is this institutional money finally warming up to XRP, or is it retail investors chasing the next shiny object? The available data doesn't tell us, and that's a problem.
We know from one report that XRP fell about 4% on the same day as the ETF launch, closing at $2.30, dragged down by a market-wide pullback. That’s…not exactly a ringing endorsement. If institutional investors were truly bullish on XRP's long-term prospects, you wouldn't expect to see that kind of knee-jerk reaction to a broader market dip.
(Quick note: I've seen this pattern before. An ETF launches, creates initial buzz, then quietly bleeds assets as the underlying asset fails to deliver.)
The claim that this ETF offers "direct exposure to the XRP token" needs a bit of unpacking, too. One source mentions another XRP ETF (ticker XRPR) that "mostly holds XRP directly and invests at least 40% of its assets into shares of other ETFs related to XRP." That's not exactly direct exposure, is it? It's exposure layered on exposure, which adds complexity and potential for hidden fees and tracking errors.
I’ve looked at hundreds of these filings, and this kind of indirect structure always makes me a little uneasy. It’s like a Russian nesting doll of investments; you have to peel back multiple layers to understand what you actually own.
And this is the part that I find genuinely puzzling. If the demand for direct XRP exposure is so high, why the need for these convoluted structures? It suggests that perhaps the "love" for XRP is more conditional than some analysts would have you believe.
Canary Capital, the issuer of the XRPC ETF, isn't exactly a household name. That's not necessarily a red flag, but it does raise questions about their long-term commitment to this space. Will they stick around if the initial hype fades, or will they move on to the next hot trend?
The DTCC (Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation) listed five spot XRP ETFs under its "active and pre-launch" funds category. This tells us there’s more competition on the horizon. A flood of similar products could dilute the market and make it even harder for any single ETF to gain traction.
The $58 million day-one volume is a flashy number, but it doesn't tell the whole story. It's a data point, not a trend. The key questions—who's buying, what's their motivation, and can this volume be sustained—remain unanswered. Until we have more clarity on those fronts, I'm treating this launch with a healthy dose of skepticism. It could be the start of something big, or it could just be a fleeting moment of crypto-fueled exuberance. Only time (and more data) will tell.
